Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/8/2023

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Toronto Raptors · Nov 8, 2023

Updated Nov 9, 2023 1:44 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Derrick Jones Jr. has averaged 1.3 personal fouls per game on the road since the start of last season, placing him in the 23rd percentile -- among the NBA's least-whistled.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 6th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing on the road.
Since the start of last season, the opposing team's starting SFs have put up 17.8 points per game (30th-most in the NBA) vs. the Raptors, resulting in a positive matchup for offensive productivity.
The 8th-quickest tempo team in the league this year has been the Mavericks.
Since the start of last season when they are playing at home, their opposition has collected 9.4 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Toronto Raptors (lessening possessions that could otherwise result in bonus opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Derrick Jones Jr. ranks in the 15th percentile for scoring ability when playing on the road with a a lackluster 31.8% rate since the start of last season.
Among all players in the league, Derrick Jones Jr. measures in the 24th percentile for playing time, logging just 13.9 minutes per game when playing away from home since the start of last season.
The Mavericks are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 3rd-slowest tempo road offense in the NBA this year (the Raptors).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Dallas Mavericks rank 1stworst in in the NBA while on their home court with just 7.7 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.
Derrick Jones Jr. has converted 0.0 foul shots per game since the start of last season, placing him in the 18th percentile out of all players in the league.