Derrick Jones Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/3/2023

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Derrick Jones Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Derrick Jones Jr.

F · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 3, 2023

Updated Nov 4, 2023 1:13 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Jones Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Derrick Jones Jr. measures in the 22nd percentile for personal fouls, compiling a lowly 1.3 fouls per game since the start of last season.
As it relates to shot attempts from downtown, the 3rd-most aggressive team in the NBA on the road since the start of last season has been the Dallas Mavericks.
Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, the other team has secured 9.9 offensive boards per game (8th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Nuggets (diminishing possessions that could otherwise produce added opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Derrick Jones Jr. has attempted 3.7 shots per game while playing away from home since the start of last season, putting him in the 21st percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Derrick Jones Jr. has converted 26.6% of his 3-pointers away from his home court since the start of last season, placing him in the 21st percentile among all players in the league.
Derrick Jones Jr. has been on the court for 13.2 minutes per game since the start of last season, riding the bench far more than most players in the league: 23rd percentile.
Since the start of last season, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 4.1 3-point attempts per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, identifying this as a hard matchup.
The {OPP_TEAM} will likely suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 7th-most lethargic pace team in the league this year (the Denver Nuggets).

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