Dennis Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 2/27/2024

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Dennis Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Dennis Smith Jr.

G · Brooklyn Nets

Points

Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn Nets · Feb 27, 2024

Updated Feb 28, 2024 1:35 AM EST

Analysis

Dennis Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 4.9 rate, Dennis Smith Jr.'s off-target shots have declined this year to 3.7 per game.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Brooklyn Nets grade out 6thbest in in the league with 11.7 offensive rebounds per game this year.
While playing at home, the Magic have allowed the 2nd-least offensive boards per game (9.0) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Dennis Smith Jr. slots into the 17th percentile for three-point prowess on the road with a a poor 21.2% rate this year.
Relative to last year's 25.7 rate, Dennis Smith Jr.'s playing time has declined this year to 19.6 minutes per game.
Dennis Smith Jr. has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games away from home, 0.1 more than he's committed in all games this season on the road.
With respect to offense, the Nets's feeble 104.5 points per game ranks 2nd-fewest in the NBA over the last 10 games.
This matchup is a good one for three-pointers; opposing teams have put up the 3rd-highest three rate in the NBA over the last 5 games (42.1%).

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