Dennis Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 2/6/2024

NBA · Player Props

Dennis Smith Jr.

G · Brooklyn Nets

Points

Brooklyn Nets vs Dallas Mavericks · Feb 6, 2024

Updated Feb 7, 2024 4:06 AM EST

Analysis

Dennis Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Over the last 10 games, opposing squads have averaged 32.2 three attempts per game (9th-lowest in the NBA) against the Mavericks, resulting in a tough matchup.
The Brooklyn Nets have played at the 5th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 5 games.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the NBA away from their home city this year, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Nets.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, and the Brooklyn Nets grade out 11thbest in in the NBA while playing at home with 12.3 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
Dennis Smith Jr. will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on your home court tends to increase player production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

Dennis Smith Jr. has successfully made 20.6% of his three-point attempts while playing at home this year, putting him in the 15th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Dennis Smith Jr. has accumulated 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the NBA (83rd percentile).
With respect to offense, the Brooklyn Nets's unimpressive 45.9% field goal percentage on their home court settles in as the 2nd-worst in the league over the last 15 games.
The Mavericks have allowed the 5th-most offensive boards per game (11.4) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games, opposing clubs have attempted 28.0 foul shots per game (most in the league) against the Dallas Mavericks, finding it easy to draw fouls.