Dennis Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/31/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Dennis Smith Jr.

G · Brooklyn Nets

Points

Brooklyn Nets vs Phoenix Suns · Jan 31, 2024

Updated Feb 1, 2024 2:28 AM EST

Analysis

Dennis Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+112/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year when they are on their home court, opposing clubs have averaged 12.3 threes per game (8th-fewest in the league) vs. the Suns, identifying this as a tough matchup.
The Brooklyn Nets will likely see a rise in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 7th-quickest pace-of-play road offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Suns).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and generate added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Brooklyn Nets rank 3rdbest in in the NBA with 11.8 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.
The matchup against the Phoenix Suns may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; their opposition has attempted a lowly 19.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games (5th-least in the league).
Dennis Smith Jr. figures to get a boost in efficiency for all stats in light of possessing the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Dennis Smith Jr. has successfully made 21.1% of his 3-point shots while playing at home this year, placing him in the 16th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Dennis Smith Jr. has been called for 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the NBA (82nd percentile).
The Nets check in as the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 20 games has been the Brooklyn Nets.
Away from their home court, the Suns have given up the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (12.1) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).