Dennis Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/23/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Dennis Smith Jr.

G · Brooklyn Nets

Points

Brooklyn Nets vs New York Knicks · Jan 23, 2024

Updated Jan 24, 2024 1:27 AM EST

Analysis

Dennis Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Dennis Smith Jr. has attempted 10.0 field goals per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 2.5 more than he's attempted overall this year at home.
Dennis Smith Jr. has played 27.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 5.5 more than he's played in all games this year at home.
The Knicks have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games on the road, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Nets.
The Brooklyn Nets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing squads have brought down 9.5 offensive boards per game (3rd-fewest in the NBA) vs. the New York Knicks (shortening possessions that could otherwise result in more chances for offense).

Favors Under

Dennis Smith Jr. has successfully made 26.4% of his attempts from beyond the arc when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 25th percentile among all players in the league.
Dennis Smith Jr. has averaged 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the NBA (80th percentile).
The Brooklyn Nets have been the 3rd-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 25 games.
This matchup is a good one for three-point attempts; their opposition has totaled the 8th-most three attempts per game in the league over the last 20 games when the Knicks are on the road (36.5).
The Brooklyn Nets have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA while on their home court this year.