Dennis Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Dennis Smith Jr.

G · Charlotte Hornets

Points

Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic · Mar 3, 2023

Updated Mar 4, 2023 12:12 AM EST

Analysis

Dennis Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This matchup is a tough one for field goals; opposing clubs have posted the 3rd-lowest field goal rate in the NBA over the last 25 games when the Magic are away from home (45.6%).
The Magic have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games away from their home stadium, which should increase plays for the Hornets.
The Charlotte Hornets rank as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).
Dennis Smith Jr. will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city generally increases stat production across the board.

Favors Under

Dennis Smith Jr. has sunk 0.0% of his 3-point attempts over the last 15 games, -26.0% less than he's made overall this year.
Dennis Smith Jr. has attempted 0.7 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, ranking in the 18th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Dennis Smith Jr. has tallied 0.2 technical fouls per game on his home court since the start of last season, placing him in the 98th percentile -- among the league's most-whistled when it comes to getting T'ed up.
The Charlotte Hornets have played at the 10th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 10 games with the home court advantage.
While on the road, the Magic have given up the 8th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.7) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).