Dennis Smith Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/23/2023

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Dennis Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Dennis Smith Jr.

G · Charlotte Hornets

Points

Utah Jazz vs Charlotte Hornets · Jan 23, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Dennis Smith Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Dennis Smith Jr. has attempted 8.0 shots per game this year, significantly higher than his 5.1 rate last year.
Dennis Smith Jr. has sunk 88.9% of his foul shots over the last 10 games on the road, 9.7% more than he's sunk overall this season while playing away from home.
The Charlotte Hornets rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games while playing on the road (which can also provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Charlotte Hornets have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games on the road.
The matchup vs. the Jazz is a positive one for attempts from beyond the arc; opposing squads have averaged the 4th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (31.7).

Favors Under

Dennis Smith Jr. has been called for 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the league (80th percentile).
The Jazz have allowed the 7th-least offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the league to opposing squads this year (which will also lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Jazz may be a challenging one for drawing fouls; the other team have attempted just 26.0 foul shots per game over the last 20 games while on his home court (2nd-least in the NBA).
The Charlotte Hornets check in as the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The Hornets have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home city, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Jazz.

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