Dennis Smith Jr. Assists - Player Prop Bet 1/15/2024

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Dennis Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Dennis Smith Jr.

G · Brooklyn Nets

Assists

Brooklyn Nets vs Miami Heat · Jan 15, 2024

Updated Jan 16, 2024 12:48 AM EST

Analysis

Dennis Smith Jr. Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Dennis Smith Jr. has compiled 6.6 assists per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 1.8 more than he's compiled overall this season at home.
The Brooklyn Nets have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 25 games, the other team has grabbed 9.0 offensive rebounds per game (fewest in the league) against the Miami Heat (reducing possessions that could otherwise result in bonus chances for offense).
Dennis Smith Jr. will hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court usually boosts stat production for all stats.

Favors Under

Dennis Smith Jr. has been called for 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 1.0 more than he's been called for in all games this season at home.
The 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Nets.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA this year, which should reduce possessions for the Nets.

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