Dennis Smith Jr. Assists - Player Prop Bet 2/25/2023

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Dennis Smith Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Dennis Smith Jr.

G · Charlotte Hornets

Assists

Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat · Feb 25, 2023

Updated Feb 26, 2023 12:13 AM EST

Analysis

Dennis Smith Jr. Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Dennis Smith Jr. has compiled 3.6 assists per game while on his home court since the start of last season, putting him in the 80th percentile -- among the best in the NBA by this metric.
The Charlotte Hornets have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
While on the road, the Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Dennis Smith Jr. will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court tends to raises player performance for all stats.

Favors Under

Dennis Smith Jr. has averaged 0.1 technical fouls per game while on his home court since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling when it comes to technicals.
The Charlotte Hornets have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games playing at home.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Hornets.

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