Deni Avdija Points - Player Prop Bet 12/13/2023

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Deni Avdija

NBA · Player Props

Deni Avdija

F · Washington Wizards

Points

Washington Wizards vs New Orleans Pelicans · Dec 13, 2023

Updated Dec 14, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Deni Avdija Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last season's 42.7% rate, Deni Avdija's shooting effectiveness has jumped this season to 52.1%.
With respect to offense, the Wizards's outstanding 115.6 points per game while at home places 10th-strongest in the league this year.
The most up-tempo pace home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Washington Wizards.
The Washington Wizards are expected to see a spike in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 9th-fastest tempo visiting team in the NBA over the last 11 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).
Deni Avdija has failed to convert 0.1 free throw attempts per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 24th percentile for misses .

Favors Under

Compared to last season's 2.7 mark, Deni Avdija's personal fouls per game have spiked this season to 2.9.
The matchup against New Orleans is a difficult one; when the Pelicans are the visiting team, they have given up the 14th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs this year (11.6).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create further chances for scoring and assists, but the Wizards rank 1stworst in in the league with a mere 7.4 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 5 games, their opposition has captured 11.4 offensive rebounds per game (9th-most in the NBA) against the Pelicans (lengthening possessions that can create additional opportunities for offense).
This year, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 2.4 foul shots per game (6th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, struggling to get to the charity stripe.

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