Deni Avdija Points - Player Prop Bet 11/24/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Deni Avdija

F · Washington Wizards

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards · Nov 24, 2023

Updated Nov 25, 2023 1:13 AM EST

Analysis

Deni Avdija Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Deni Avdija has made a terrific 55.6% of his field goals this season, a big improvement over his 42.7 mark last season.
Compared to last year's 29.1% mark, Deni Avdija's three-point effectiveness has increased this year to 43.3%.
The Washington Wizards rank as the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league while on their home court this year.
The Washington Wizards have played at the fastest tempo in the league as the away team this year.
The Washington Wizards are expected to get a boost in opportunities in this contest from facing the 2nd-fastest pace road offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Bucks).

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Milwaukee is a challenging one for threes; when the Milwaukee Bucks are at home, the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled the 14th-least treys per game in the NBA this year (0.9).
Offensive rebounds save possession and generate more chances for scoring and assists, but the Wizards grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA on their home court with just 8.5 offensive boards per game this year.
While on their home court, the Bucks have given up the 8th-most offensive boards per game (11.6) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
Since the start of last season when they are the visiting team, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.4 free throws per game (11th-lowest in the NBA) against the Bucks, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.
Deni Avdija will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court usually worsens player production across the board.