Deni Avdija Points - Player Prop Bet 11/13/2023

NBA · Player Props

Deni Avdija

F · Washington Wizards

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Washington Wizards · Nov 13, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 4:02 AM EST

Analysis

Deni Avdija Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Wizards have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage.
Since the start of last season, opposing starting SFs have averaged 2.1 threes per game (30th-most in the league) vs. the Toronto Raptors, designating this as a good matchup.
The speediest pace-of-play road team in the NBA this year has been the Wizards.
Over the last 5 games when they are away from home, opposing teams have nabbed 8.4 offensive boards per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Toronto Raptors (turning over possessions that could otherwise result in more chances for offense).
The matchup against the Raptors is a favorable one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a monstrous 3.5 foul shots per game since the start of last season (26th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Deni Avdija has shot and missed 2.8 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 higher than he's missed from downtown over the course of the season.
Out of all players in the league, Deni Avdija comes in at the 79th percentile for technical fouls, posting an enormous 0.0 fouls per game this year.
The {OPP_TEAM} are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year (the Toronto Raptors).
The Washington Wizards rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
In contrast to last season's 72.8% clip, Deni Avdija's foul-shot proficiency has diminished this season to 58.3%.