Deni Avdija Points - Player Prop Bet 11/8/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Deni Avdija

F · Washington Wizards

Points

Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards · Nov 8, 2023

Updated Nov 9, 2023 12:08 AM EST

Analysis

Deni Avdija Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Deni Avdija has sunk 62.5% of his field goal attempts while on his home court this year, placing him in the 85th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The Wizards rank as the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games at home.
The matchup against Charlotte is a strong one for 3-point shots; when the Charlotte Hornets are at home, opposing starting SFs have compiled the 27th-highest three rate in the league since the start of last season (36.7%).
The Wizards have played at the speediest pace in the league when playing at home this year.
The Hornets have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA on the road this year, which should raise plays for the Wizards.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Deni Avdija rates in the 88th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a colossal 2.7 fouls per game when playing at home since the start of last season.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Wizards grade out 6thworst in in the NBA with the home court advantage with only 9.4 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.
When playing on the road, the Charlotte Hornets have allowed the 10th-most offensive boards per game (10.9) in the league to opposing squads since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
In comparison to last season's 72.8% rate, Deni Avdija's free-throw effectiveness has diminished this season to 50.0%.
Deni Avdija will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium tends to lower player performance across the board.