Deni Avdija Points - Player Prop Bet 11/3/2023

NBA · Player Props

Deni Avdija

F · Washington Wizards

Points

Miami Heat vs Washington Wizards · Nov 3, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 11:48 PM EST

Analysis

Deni Avdija Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+102/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In regard to shooting, the Washington Wizards's superb 48.7% field goal percentage playing at home settles in as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The matchup vs. Miami is a strong one; when the Heat are the visiting team, they have allowed the 27th-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SFs since the start of last season (16.8).
Since the start of last season when they are away from home, opposing teams have brought down 9.4 offensive boards per game (2nd-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat (reducing possessions that could otherwise spark bonus opportunities for offense).
The matchup vs. Miami is a strong one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a colossal 3.5 free throws per game since the start of last season when the Miami Heat are on the road (24th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Deni Avdija has tallied 2.8 personal fouls per game since the start of last season, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the NBA (90th percentile).
Since the start of last season when they are away from home, the other team has shot 47.9% on shots from the field (10th-highest in the league) against the Miami Heat, marking this as a favorable matchup.
The {OPP_TEAM} are expected to experience a decrease in plays in this contest from competing against the 10th-slowest pace team in the league this year (the Heat).
The Washington Wizards have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league as the away team since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
Deni Avdija will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing while traveling tends to lower stat production in all stat categories.