Deni Avdija Points - Player Prop Bet 3/4/2023

NBA · Player Props

Deni Avdija

F · Washington Wizards

Points

Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors · Mar 4, 2023

Updated Mar 4, 2023 10:06 PM EST

Analysis

Deni Avdija Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Deni Avdija has attempted 11.2 shots per game over the last 5 games, 4.1 higher than he's attempted in all games this season.
Deni Avdija has made 43.3% of his 3-point attempts over the last 5 games at home, 15.7% more than he's made from downtown over the course of the year while at home.
Deni Avdija has been on the court for 29.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.5 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season.
The Washington Wizards have played at the 10th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
While on the road, the Raptors have given up the 6th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.4) in the league to opposing teams over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Deni Avdija has been called for 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the league (75th percentile).
This matchup is a strong one for 3-pointers; opposing teams have posted the 4th-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA over the last 10 games (40.8%).
The Raptors have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should decrease possessions for the Wizards.
The Washington Wizards check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a strong one for getting to the free throw line; their opposition have attempted an enormous 23.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (8th-most in the league).