De'Anthony Melton Points - Player Prop Bet 12/20/2023

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NBA · Player Props

De'Anthony Melton

G · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Philadelphia 76ers vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Dec 20, 2023

Updated Dec 21, 2023 12:10 AM EST

Analysis

De'Anthony Melton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, De'Anthony Melton lands in the 77th percentile for shot attempts from beyond the arc with the home court advantage, logging 4.9 per game this year.
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting SGs have averaged 2.6 three-pointers per game (27th-highest in the league) against the Timberwolves, creating a positive matchup.
The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games.
Offensive rebounds save possession and result in further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Philadelphia 76ers rank 10thbest in in the NBA when playing at home with 12.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have given up the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (8.8) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

De'Anthony Melton has averaged 2.4 personal fouls per game when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
With respect to 3-point attempts, the 10th-least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should lead to decreased plays for the Philadelphia 76ers.
The matchup against the Timberwolves may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SGs have attempted a mere 2.2 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (13th-least in the league).