De'Anthony Melton Points - Player Prop Bet 4/6/2023

NBA · Player Props

De'Anthony Melton

G · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat · Apr 6, 2023

Updated Apr 6, 2023 11:26 PM EST

Analysis

De'Anthony Melton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

De'Anthony Melton has made 2.1 shots from downtown per game this year, ranking him in the 86th percentile among all players in the NBA.
The Philadelphia 76ers check in as the 10th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games.
The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one for three-point attempts; the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied the 30th-most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (7.0).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.9) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Miami may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a monstrous 3.1 free throws per game over the last 20 games when the Heat are the visiting squad (29th-most in the league).

Favors Under

De'Anthony Melton has accumulated 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the NBA (83rd percentile).
The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 20 games.
The Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the 76ers.
The Philadelphia 76ers check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
De'Anthony Melton has failed to make 0.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.5 more than he's missed in all games this season playing at home.