De'Anthony Melton Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2023

NBA · Player Props

De'Anthony Melton

G · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Philadelphia 76ers · Mar 7, 2023

Updated Mar 8, 2023 12:31 AM EST

Analysis

De'Anthony Melton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-124/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia 76ers rank as the 5th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.
The matchup against Minnesota is a good one; when the Timberwolves have the home court advantage, they have allowed the 28th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SGs this year (18.3).
The Timberwolves have played at the quickest pace in the NBA this year, which ought to boost opportunities for the 76ers.
De'Anthony Melton has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 26.3% higher than he's made overall this year.
The matchup vs. Minnesota is a positive one for getting to the free throw line; opposing starting SGs have attempted a colossal 3.1 free throws per game this year when the Timberwolves have the home court advantage (23rd-most in the league).

Favors Under

De'Anthony Melton has converted 29.5% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 15 games, -7.7% less than he's sunk in all games this year.
The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Philadelphia 76ers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Timberwolves have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (13.4) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
De'Anthony Melton will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium usually reduces stat production in all facets of the game.