De'Anthony Melton Points - Player Prop Bet 3/1/2023

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NBA · Player Props

De'Anthony Melton

G · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers · Mar 1, 2023

Updated Mar 2, 2023 12:41 AM EST

Analysis

De'Anthony Melton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia 76ers have been the 5th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. the Heat is a strong one for attempts from downtown; the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged the 29th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (5.7).
The Heat have given up the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
De'Anthony Melton has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 26.3% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this season.
The matchup against the Heat may be a good one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a massive 4.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games (26th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

De'Anthony Melton has converted 29.5% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, -7.7% lower than he's made overall this year.
The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to reduce plays for the 76ers.
The Philadelphia 76ers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
De'Anthony Melton will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court generally worsens player performance for all stats.