Deandre Ayton Points - Player Prop Bet 12/19/2024

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Deandre Ayton

NBA · Player Props

Deandre Ayton

C · Portland Trail Blazers

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 19, 2024

Updated Dec 20, 2024 3:16 AM EST

Analysis

Deandre Ayton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Deandre Ayton rates in the 85th percentile for shooting effectiveness on his home court with a superb 56.5% rate this year.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should boost opportunities for the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Portland Trail Blazers check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs vs. Nikola Jokic has been very high (3.9 foul shots per game) when guarding opposing starting Cs this year (89th percentile).
Deandre Ayton ought to get a boost in output in all facets of the game as a result of controlling the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

Deandre Ayton has committed 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's committed in all games this year.
The Trail Blazers rank as the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
When facing other starting Cs, Nikola Jokic places in the 4th percentile with a mere 1.0 shots from downtown attempted against him per game this year.
The 4th-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Trail Blazers.
Deandre Ayton has sunk 54.2% of his free throws this year, ranking him in the 9th percentile out of all players in the league.

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