De'Aaron Fox Points - Player Prop Bet 3/10/2025

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De'Aaron Fox

NBA · Player Props

De'Aaron Fox

G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 10, 2025

Updated Mar 11, 2025 3:34 AM EST

Analysis

De'Aaron Fox Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+108/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

De'Aaron Fox has failed to convert 4.3 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 5.1 rate last year.
Out of all players in the league, De'Aaron Fox measures in the 87th percentile for playing time, compiling an enormous 32.8 minutes per game while playing at home this year.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied 6.1 three attempts per game (5th-most in the league) vs. the Mavericks, identifying this as a favorable matchup.
The 7th-quickest tempo offense in the league over the last 20 games has been the San Antonio Spurs.

Favors Under

In comparison to last year's 21.1 clip, De'Aaron Fox's shots have been reduced this year to 18.8 per game.
De'Aaron Fox has been called for 2.5 personal fouls per game while on his home court this year, putting him in the 87th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (6th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, struggling to get to the charity stripe.

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