Davion Mitchell Points - Player Prop Bet 1/31/2024

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Davion Mitchell

G · Sacramento Kings

Points

Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings · Jan 31, 2024

Updated Feb 1, 2024 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Davion Mitchell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Davion Mitchell has sunk 46.7% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 5 games on the road, 22.6% more than he's converted from downtown overall this season when playing on the road.
The Kings rank as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
While on their home court, the Heat have allowed the 2nd-least offensive boards per game (9.0) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Miami Heat may be a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing teams have attempted just 17.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Miami Heat are playing at home (least in the league).

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 45.0% clip, Davion Mitchell's shooting performance has fallen this year to 31.7%.
This matchup is a strong one for 3-point shots; when the Heat are at home, their opposition has totaled the most three-point shots per game in the league against them this year (14.0).
The Heat have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 25 games, which should lead to decreased plays for the Kings.
Among all players in the NBA, Davion Mitchell ranks in the 18th percentile for drawing fouls, tallying just 0.5 free throws per game this year.
As a team, the Sacramento Kings have been poor at getting to the foul line in recent days: worst in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court, totaling a measly 18.2 foul shot attempts per game.