Davion Mitchell Points - Player Prop Bet 4/23/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Davion Mitchell

G · Sacramento Kings

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings · Apr 23, 2023

Updated Apr 23, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Davion Mitchell Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-139/+107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Sacramento Kings check in as the highest scoring offense in the league this year.
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage.
The Warriors have played at the fastest pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to more possessions for the Kings.
Davion Mitchell has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 18.9% more than he's converted overall this season.
The matchup vs. the Warriors may be a favorable one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a colossal 4.6 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (26th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Davion Mitchell has averaged a mere 5.7 points per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 11.5 points per game last season.
The matchup vs. Golden State is a tough one for field goals; when the Warriors are at home, the other team's starting PGs have shot for the 14th-lowest field goal rate in the NBA this year (41.3%).
The Sacramento Kings have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Warriors have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (13.0) in the league to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
Davion Mitchell will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage tends to lowers player production in all stat categories.