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Dario Saric

Dario Saric Points
Player Prop - 12/28/2023

Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat

Dario Saric Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Golden State Warriors have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 25 games, the other team has collected 9.0 offensive rebounds per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Heat (turning over possessions that could otherwise lead to bonus opportunities for offense).

Dario Saric has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 12.8% more than he's sunk over the course of the season.

This year when they are at home, opposing teams have attempted 19.0 free throws per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.

Dario Saric ought to see a rise in effectiveness across the board in light of having the home court advantage in this contest.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Dario Saric has averaged 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-whistled players in the NBA (79th percentile).

As it relates to offense, the Golden State Warriors's unimpressive 45.3% field goal percentage as the home team comes in as the 3rd-weakest in the NBA this year.

This matchup is a favorable one for 3-pointers; their opposition has shot for the 9th-highest three rate in the league this year (37.8%).

The 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Warriors.

The Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home stadium, which should decrease possessions for the Warriors.

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