Daniel Gafford Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 5/15/2024

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Daniel Gafford

NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks · May 15, 2024

Updated May 16, 2024 1:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Daniel Gafford has averaged a terrific 2.6 offensive boards per game this year, a big improvement over his 2.1 offensive boards per game last year.
The Thunder have played at the 7th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should raise opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Daniel Gafford has committed 2.9 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (95th percentile).
The 4th-least up-tempo pace team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks.
Daniel Gafford is expected to suffer a reduction in output in all stat categories in light of playing on the visting team in this game.

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