Daniel Gafford Points - Player Prop Bet 4/16/2025

NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 16, 2025

Updated Apr 17, 2025 2:23 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-130/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Daniel Gafford ranks in the 98th percentile for field goal ability with a very good 69.2% rate this year.
With respect to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's exceptional 48.2% field goal rate without the home court advantage places 3rd-most in the league this year.
The 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play away team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Mavericks.
Daniel Gafford has attempted 3.1 foul shots per game while on the road this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile out of all players in the league.
The clash with Domantas Sabonis in regard to getting to the foul line slots into only the 75th percentile for difficulty with opposing starting Cs attempting an enormous 3.0 free throws per game this year.

Favors Under

Daniel Gafford has attempted 0.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game away from his home court this year, placing him in the 4th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Daniel Gafford has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game on the road this year, putting him in the 91st percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
The number of three-point shots sunk against Domantas Sabonis has been remarkably low (0.5 per game) when he is on his home court and matched up against other starting Cs this year (17th percentile).
The Dallas Mavericks are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from being pitted against the 2nd-least up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Sacramento Kings).
The Mavericks have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).