Daniel Gafford Points - Player Prop Bet 2/10/2025

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Daniel Gafford

NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings · Feb 10, 2025

Updated Feb 11, 2025 3:34 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Daniel Gafford has attempted 9.2 shots per game over the last 10 games, 2.0 higher than he's attempted overall this season.
Daniel Gafford has tallied 32.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 9.8 higher than he's tallied overall this year.
This year, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 52.6% on field goals (6th-best in the league) against the Sacramento Kings, marking this as a strong matchup.
The Kings have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games, which should lead to more opportunities for the Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Daniel Gafford slots into the 93rd percentile for personal fouls, logging a massive 2.7 fouls per game on his home court this year.
In terms of shooting, the Mavericks's poor 111.3 points per game while playing at home comes in as the 8th-fewest in the league over the last 10 games.
The 7th-least up-tempo tempo home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks.
The matchup vs. the Kings may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 2.4 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the NBA).

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