Daniel Gafford Points - Player Prop Bet 1/22/2025

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Daniel Gafford

NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Jan 22, 2025

Updated Jan 23, 2025 2:24 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+106/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Daniel Gafford has converted 6.6 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 more than he's put through the net over the course of the year.
In terms of scoring, the Mavericks's stellar 115.2 points per game comes in as the 10th-most in the NBA this year.
Daniel Gafford has attempted 5.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 2.4 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season.
The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs vs. Rudy Gobert has been remarkably high this year (2.8 free throw attempts per game when they are at home: 77th percentile).
Daniel Gafford stands to see an increase in output for all stats in light of holding the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Daniel Gafford measures in the 6th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc at home, totaling 0.0 per game this year.
Daniel Gafford has averaged 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most highest-fouling players in the league (90th percentile).
The showdown with Rudy Gobert slots into the 10th percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting Cs putting up just 12.2 points per game this year when they are at home.
The 6th-least up-tempo pace home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks.

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