Daniel Gafford Points - Player Prop Bet 1/15/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks · Jan 15, 2025

Updated Jan 16, 2025 2:30 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Daniel Gafford has successfully made 67.7% of his shot attempts from the field this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the league.
The number of field goals converted against Yves Missi has been very high (6.0 per game) when he is on his home court and defending fellow starting Cs this year (93rd percentile).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 5th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games while playing away from home.
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 6th-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should increase plays for the Dallas Mavericks.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Mavericks rank 6th-best in in the NBA with 12.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 6 games.

Favors Under

Daniel Gafford has attempted 0.0 shots from downtown per game when playing on the road this year, placing him in the 6th percentile among all players in the league.
Daniel Gafford has averaged 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, 0.8 more than he's averaged over the course of the year on the road.
In terms of shots from behind the three-point arc, the 6th-least aggressive team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The clash with Yves Missi in terms of getting to the free-throw line comes in at the 10th percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs attempting a mere 3.1 foul shots per game this year.
Daniel Gafford will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling tends to decrease stat production in all facets of the game.