Daniel Gafford Points - Player Prop Bet 11/10/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 10, 2024

Updated Nov 11, 2024 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Daniel Gafford has converted 81.5% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 9.3% higher than he's converted in all games this year.
With respect to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's superb 42.2 sunk buckets per game measures as the 8th-most in the league this year.
The number of baskets sunk against Nikola Jokic has been quite high (7.1 per game) when facing opposing starting Cs this year (100th percentile).
The Mavericks are expected to see an increase in plays in this game from competing against the 2nd-speediest tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Denver Nuggets).
The showdown with Nikola Jokic with respect to getting to the free-throw line ranks in only the 94th percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs attempting an enormous 5.5 foul shots per game this year when they are playing on the road.

Favors Under

Daniel Gafford has attempted 0.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game while on the road since the start of last season, ranking in the 4th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Among all players in the NBA, Daniel Gafford rates in the 94th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a colossal 2.9 fouls per game away from home since the start of last season.
The 4th-most sluggish tempo away team in the league this year has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
Daniel Gafford will not possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road tends to lower player performance in all stat categories.