Daniel Gafford Points - Player Prop Bet 5/22/2024

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Daniel Gafford

NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks · May 22, 2024

Updated May 22, 2024 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-145/+114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

When matched up against opposing starting Cs, Rudy Gobert slots into the 100th percentile with an enormous 2.4 3-point shots attempted against him per game this year.
The Mavericks rank as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Rudy Gobert is a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; when facing other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a colossal 3.7 free throws per game (100th percentile).

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 75.2% mark, Daniel Gafford's shooting prowess has regressed this year to 69.3%.
Among all players in the league, Daniel Gafford measures in the 94th percentile for personal fouls, tallying a monstrous 2.9 fouls per game this year.
The 6th-most lethargic tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the least up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 10 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
Daniel Gafford has made just 63.8% of his foul shot attempts this season, quite a bit less than his 72.6 rate last season.

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