Daniel Gafford Points - Player Prop Bet 4/28/2024

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Daniel Gafford

NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs LA Clippers · Apr 28, 2024

Updated Apr 28, 2024 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+110/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Daniel Gafford has sunk 83.5% of his shots from the field over the last 10 games at home, 15.2% higher than he's sunk in all games this year while playing at home.
In regard to shooting, the Mavericks's fantastic 117.2 points per game measures as the 8th-most in the league this year.
The 6th-quickest tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavericks will likely see a spike in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 10th-quickest pace team in the league over the last 10 games (the Clippers).
Daniel Gafford will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home generally boosts stat production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Daniel Gafford lands in the 6th percentile for shot attempts from beyond the arc with the home court advantage, tallying 0.0 per game this year.
Among all players in the league, Daniel Gafford measures in the 94th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a colossal 2.9 fouls per game while at home this year.
The matchup vs. Ivica Zubac is a challenging one; he has given up a lowly 12.4 points per game when squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year (8th percentile).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create more chances for scoring and assists, but the Mavericks grade out 7thworst in in the NBA with the home court advantage with just 9.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

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