Daniel Gafford Points - Player Prop Bet 4/23/2024

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Daniel Gafford

NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Points

LA Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 23, 2024

Updated Apr 24, 2024 2:04 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-125/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Daniel Gafford places in the 99th percentile for scoring effectiveness away from his home court with a superb 72.1% rate this year.
The Mavericks have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 20 games while playing on the road.
The Mavericks have played at the 5th-quickest pace-of-play in the league away from home this year.
The LA Clippers have played at the 7th-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Dallas Mavericks.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Daniel Gafford lands in the 97th percentile for personal fouls, logging a colossal 3.1 fouls per game without the home court advantage this year.
The matchup against Ivica Zubac is a tough one; he has allowed a measly 12.7 points per game when squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year (13th percentile).
The Mavericks check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games as the road team (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Daniel Gafford has successfully made a measly 64.7% of his foul shot attempts this year, a sizeable decrease from his 72.6 rate last year.
Daniel Gafford will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage generally worsens player production in all facets of the game.

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