Daniel Gafford Points - Player Prop Bet 4/10/2024

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Daniel Gafford

NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 10, 2024

Updated Apr 10, 2024 11:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Daniel Gafford has sunk 6.3 baskets per game over the last 10 games on the road, 1.6 higher than he's converted overall this season while playing away from home.
In terms of scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's outstanding 120.5 points per game away from home measures as the strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The matchup against Bam Adebayo is a good one for shots from the field; when Adebayo is on his home court fellow starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a monstrous 62.3% of their shot attempts from the field (100th percentile).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Daniel Gafford has accumulated 3.1 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most-whistled players in the NBA (98th percentile).
The Dallas Mavericks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from facing the 2nd-most lethargic pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Miami Heat).
The Mavericks have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Relative to last season's 72.6% mark, Daniel Gafford's foul-shot prowess has diminished this season to 65.0%.
The matchup with Bam Adebayo in terms of getting to the free-throw line registers in the 7th percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting Cs attempting just 2.8 foul shots per game this year.

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