Daniel Gafford Points - Player Prop Bet 3/19/2024

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Daniel Gafford

NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 19, 2024

Updated Mar 20, 2024 1:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Daniel Gafford has made 6.6 baskets per game over the last 5 games, 2.0 more than he's made over the course of the season.
As it relates to shooting, the Mavericks's impressive 122.3 points per game as the visting team places highest in the league over the last 10 games.
The matchup against Victor Wembanyama is a strong one; he has allowed an enormous 17.2 points per game when guarding fellow starting Cs this year (100th percentile).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games as the away team.
The Spurs have played at the 3rd-speediest pace in the league this year, which should raise possessions for the Dallas Mavericks.

Favors Under

Daniel Gafford has attempted 0.0 treys per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 5th percentile among all players in the league.
Daniel Gafford has been called for 3.2 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most-whistled players in the league (98th percentile).
The Mavericks rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
Daniel Gafford will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling tends to lower player production in all stat categories.

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