Daniel Gafford Points - Player Prop Bet 3/14/2024

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Daniel Gafford

NBA · Player Props

Daniel Gafford

F-C · Dallas Mavericks

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 14, 2024

Updated Mar 15, 2024 2:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Gafford Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-128/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Daniel Gafford has converted 100.0% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 29.5% more than he's put through the hoop overall this year.
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games without the home court advantage.
The faceoff with Chet Holmgren lands in just the 83rd percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs totaling a monstrous 15.7 points per game this year.
The 2nd-quickest pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Mavericks.
The Mavericks are expected to see an increase in possessions in this game from facing the 3rd-fastest tempo team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder).

Favors Under

Daniel Gafford has attempted 0.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game on the road this year, ranking in the 6th percentile among all players in the league.
Daniel Gafford has committed 3.1 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the league (98th percentile).
The Dallas Mavericks have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Daniel Gafford will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage generally lowers player performance across the board.

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