Damian Lillard Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/8/2023

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Portland Trail Blazers

Rebounds

Boston Celtics vs Portland Trail Blazers · Mar 8, 2023

Updated Mar 9, 2023 12:36 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-138/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has totaled 4.1 defensive rebounds per game away from home this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile -- one of the best in the NBA by this metric.
Damian Lillard has played 36.0 minutes per game while playing on the road this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
The Portland Trail Blazers check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has accumulated 0.2 technical fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the league when it comes to technicals (99th percentile).
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing away from home.
The Celtics have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games in their home stadium, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Trail Blazers.
Playing at home, the Celtics have allowed the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (11.6) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
Damian Lillard will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium usually worsens player performance across the board.

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