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Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-145/+110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -145.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Damian Lillard has logged 25.7 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 97th percentile.Damian Lillard has made 4.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 more than he's made from downtown overall this year.Out of all players in the league, Damian Lillard lands in the 97th percentile for playing time, putting up a whopping 36.3 minutes per game this year.With respect to shooting, the Bucks's terrific 120.8 points per game when playing at home rates 8th-highest in the NBA over the last 5 games.The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 8th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games while at home.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The matchup vs. Orlando is a hard one for three-point attempts; when the Magic are away from home, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged the 3rd-least three attempts per game in the league this year (4.9).The Bucks are expected to suffer a reduction in plays today from facing the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Orlando Magic).The Bucks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).When playing on the road, the Orlando Magic have allowed the 30th-most offensive rebounds per game (8.9) in the league to opposing teams over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 2.2 free throws per game (3rd-fewest in the league) against the Orlando Magic, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.
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