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Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard Points
Player Prop - 11/26/2024

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -113.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Damian Lillard has compiled 23.8 points per game while on the road this year, putting him in the 94th percentile -- one of the best in the league by this metric.

Damian Lillard has tallied 35.0 minutes per game when playing on the road this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.

With respect to shots from downtown, the Milwaukee Bucks's stellar 42.6% rate of drained threes places 3rd-best in the league over the last 5 games.

The matchup vs. the Heat is a favorable one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1).

Damian Lillard has converted 6.8 free throws per game this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among all players in the NBA.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 9th-least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Miami Heat).

The Bucks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the visting team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Damian Lillard will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium usually worsens player performance for all stats.

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