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Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard Points
Player Prop - 3/4/2024

Milwaukee Bucks vs LA Clippers

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-169/+123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -169.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Damian Lillard registers in the 93rd percentile for playing time, averaging a colossal 34.4 minutes per game while at home this year.

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league this year.

The matchup vs. Los Angeles is a good one for field goals; when the Clippers are away from home, the opposition's starting PGs have posted the 24th-highest field goal percentage in the league this year (45.6%).

Over the last 5 games when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 4.8 foul shots per game (22nd-highest in the league) against the Clippers, making it fairly effortless to get to the charity stripe.

Damian Lillard stands to see an increase in efficiency in all facets of the game in light of owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Damian Lillard has attempted a mere 17.3 field goals per game this season, quite a bit lower than his 20.7 rate last season.

Compared to last year's 11.3 rate, Damian Lillard's shot attempts from beyond the arc have diminished this year to 8.5 per game.

The 5th-most sluggish pace team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks are expected to suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 6th-least up-tempo tempo visiting team in the league this year (the Clippers).

The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

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