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Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard Points
Player Prop - 2/13/2024

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Damian Lillard rates in the 98th percentile for shot attempts from beyond the arc, putting up 8.5 per game this year.

Damian Lillard has averaged 34.9 minutes per game while at home this year, ranking in the 94th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA.

The 4th-most up-tempo pace home offense in the league this year has been the Bucks.

This year, opposing clubs have captured 9.3 offensive rebounds per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat (lessening possessions that could otherwise create further opportunities for offense).

As a team, the Milwaukee Bucks have been terrific at getting to the free-throw line: 2nd-best in the league this year, tallying 25.9 free throw attempts per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Damian Lillard has scored just 24.8 points per game this season, significantly lower than his 32.2 points per game last season.

The matchup against Miami is a hard one; when the Heat are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 6th-least points per game in the league to opposing starting PGs over the last 25 games (17.9).

The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this game from facing the most lethargic pace-of-play road offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Heat).

The Bucks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

In contrast to last season's 9.6 clip, Damian Lillard's number of free throws has regressed this season to 7.7 free throws per game.

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