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Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard Points
Player Prop - 2/12/2024

Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets

 
 
 
Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-137/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -137.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Damian Lillard has shot and missed 5.6 attempts from downtown per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 7.1 mark last year.
  • Damian Lillard has averaged 35.3 minutes per game playing at home this year, ranking in the 95th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league.
  • In regard to offense, the Bucks's remarkable 126.5 points per game while on their home court places highest in the NBA over the last 20 games.
  • The 3rd-fastest tempo home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Bucks.
  • The matchup vs. the Denver Nuggets may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a monstrous 5.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (27th-most in the league).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Damian Lillard has logged a measly 25.0 points per game this year, significantly less than his 32.2 points per game last year.
  • The matchup against Denver is a tough one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Denver Nuggets are on the road, the other team's starting PGs have averaged the 15th-least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (4.5).
  • The Bucks are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities today from competing against the most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Denver Nuggets).
  • The Bucks have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
  • The Nuggets have allowed the 9th-most offensive boards per game (11.8) in the league to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

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