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Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard Points
Player Prop - 2/12/2024

Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-137/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -137.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Damian Lillard has shot and missed 5.6 attempts from downtown per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 7.1 mark last year.

Damian Lillard has averaged 35.3 minutes per game playing at home this year, ranking in the 95th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league.

In regard to offense, the Bucks's remarkable 126.5 points per game while on their home court places highest in the NBA over the last 20 games.

The 3rd-fastest tempo home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Bucks.

The matchup vs. the Denver Nuggets may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a monstrous 5.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (27th-most in the league).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Damian Lillard has logged a measly 25.0 points per game this year, significantly less than his 32.2 points per game last year.

The matchup against Denver is a tough one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Denver Nuggets are on the road, the other team's starting PGs have averaged the 15th-least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (4.5).

The Bucks are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities today from competing against the most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Denver Nuggets).

The Bucks have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Nuggets have allowed the 9th-most offensive boards per game (11.8) in the league to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

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