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Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard Points
Player Prop - 2/4/2024

Utah Jazz vs Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (+105/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Damian Lillard measures in the 95th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 35.1 minutes per game when playing away from home this year.

The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the highest scoring offense in the league as the away team this year.

The Bucks have played at the speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games.

The Bucks will likely see an increase in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Jazz).

This year when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 5.0 free throws per game (29th-most in the league) vs. the Jazz, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Damian Lillard has put up a lowly 25.2 points per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 32.2 points per game last season.

Damian Lillard has attempted a mere 8.5 3-point shots per game this year, a sizeable decrease from his 11.3 rate last year.

This year when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting PGs have totaled 1.1 threes per game (15th-fewest in the NBA) against the Utah Jazz, marking this as a difficult matchup.

The Bucks check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the away team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Jazz have given up the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (12.1) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

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