Damian Lillard Points - Player Prop Bet 12/16/2023

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Detroit Pistons · Dec 16, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has attempted 8.4 3-pointers per game this year, placing him in the 98th percentile among all players in the league.
Damian Lillard has played 35.1 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 97th percentile.
The Bucks rank as the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.
The 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Bucks.
The Pistons have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to increase plays for the Bucks.

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has posted a mere 24.8 points per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 32.2 points per game last season.
This year when they are at home, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 23.1% on 3-pointers (15th-lowest in the NBA) against the Pistons, marking this as a hard matchup.
The Bucks have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games when they are on their home court, opposing clubs have snagged 12.2 offensive rebounds per game (7th-highest in the league) against the Detroit Pistons (preserving possessions that can create more opportunities for offense).
In contrast to last year's 9.6 rate, Damian Lillard's number of foul shots has regressed this year to 8.5 foul shots per game.

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