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Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard Points
Player Prop - 11/17/2023

Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Damian Lillard lands in the 98th percentile for playing time, averaging a monstrous 35.6 minutes per game away from home since the start of last season.

Relative to last year's 1.9 clip, Damian Lillard's personal fouls per game have fallen this year to 1.1.

The Bucks rank as the 7th-highest scoring offense in the league this year.

The 7th-speediest pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks will likely see an increase in plays today from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo away team in the league over the last 5 games (the Charlotte Hornets).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In comparison to last season's 32.2 mark, Damian Lillard's points per game have regressed this season to 24.3.

Compared to last year's 11.3 clip, Damian Lillard's 3-point attempts have diminished this year to 8.6 per game.

This year when they are at home, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 8.4 points per game (14th-lowest in the league) against the Hornets, marking this as a hard matchup for offensive effectiveness.

The Bucks check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Over the last 5 games when they are at home, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 2.5 foul shots per game (7th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Charlotte Hornets, struggling to draw fouls.

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