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Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard Points
Player Prop - 11/15/2023

Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Points Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the NBA, Damian Lillard slots into the 98th percentile for playing time, totaling a colossal 35.7 minutes per game on the road since the start of last season.

Relative to last season's 1.9 clip, Damian Lillard's personal fouls per game have dropped this season to 1.1.

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the 7th-highest scoring offense in the NBA at home this year.

The matchup against Toronto is a strong one for threes; when the Toronto Raptors are playing at home, the opposing team's starting PGs have shot for the 23rd-highest three rate in the league since the start of last season (36.2%).

The Bucks have played at the 5th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Relative to last season's 32.2 mark, Damian Lillard's points per game have diminished this season to 22.8.

Damian Lillard has attempted a mere 8.4 threes per game this year, significantly less than his 11.3 mark last year.

The Raptors have played at the 7th-slowest pace in the league on their home court this year, which should reduce opportunities for the Bucks.

The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Since the start of last season, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 3.2 foul shots per game (9th-lowest in the league) against the Toronto Raptors, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.

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