Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 3/21/2024

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Damian Lillard

NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Made 3 Point Shots

Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets · Mar 21, 2024

Updated Mar 22, 2024 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+124/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has tallied 34.9 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 95th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
In terms of three-point shots, the Milwaukee Bucks's impressive 15.0 converted threes per game playing at home rates 2nd-strongest in the NBA this year.
This year when they are playing at home, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 3.5 threes per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Nets, labeling this as a strong matchup.
The 4th-most up-tempo tempo home team in the NBA this year has been the Bucks.
Damian Lillard will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing with the home court advantage generally improves player production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has attempted a measly 8.6 3-pointers per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 11.3 mark last year.
The Milwaukee Bucks will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 7th-most sluggish tempo team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Brooklyn Nets).
The Bucks check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

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