Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 2/12/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Damian Lillard

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Made 3 Point Shots

Milwaukee Bucks vs Denver Nuggets · Feb 12, 2024

Updated Feb 13, 2024 2:09 AM EST

Analysis

Damian Lillard Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-137/-137).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Damian Lillard has shot and missed 5.6 attempts from downtown per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 7.1 mark last year.
Damian Lillard has averaged 35.3 minutes per game playing at home this year, ranking in the 95th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league.
The Bucks check in as the 4th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when it comes to shot attempts from downtown.
The 3rd-fastest tempo home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Bucks.
Damian Lillard will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home tends to raise player performance in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Damian Lillard has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's accumulated overall this season.
The matchup against Denver is a tough one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Denver Nuggets are on the road, the other team's starting PGs have averaged the 15th-least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (4.5).
The Bucks are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities today from competing against the most lethargic tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Denver Nuggets).
The Bucks have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Nuggets have allowed the 9th-most offensive boards per game (11.8) in the league to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).