Collin Sexton Points - Player Prop Bet 3/28/2025

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Collin Sexton

NBA · Player Props

Collin Sexton

G · Utah Jazz

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz · Mar 28, 2025

Updated Mar 29, 2025 12:59 AM EST

Analysis

Collin Sexton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Collin Sexton has made 8.4 buckets per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.4 higher than he's made overall this year when playing on the road.
Collin Sexton has successfully made 52.3% of his three-pointers over the last 5 games, 13.7% more than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this year.
The matchup vs. Denver is a strong one; when the Nuggets are on their home court, they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting SGs over the last 5 games (20.4).
The most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Utah Jazz.
The Nuggets have played at the 6th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to increase opportunities for the Jazz.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Collin Sexton comes in at the 82nd percentile for personal fouls, averaging a massive 2.3 fouls per game this year.
The Utah Jazz rank as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.
Collin Sexton will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage generally lowers player performance for all stats.

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